Objective:
This study aimed to develop a drug cost model for injuries due
to road traffic accidents for patients receiving treatment at
a regional hospital in Thailand.
Methods: The study was designed as a retrospective, descriptive
analysis. The cases were all from road traffic accidents receiving
treatment at a public regional hospital in the fiscal year 2004.
Results: Three thousand seven hundred and twenty-three road accident
patients were included in the study. The mean drug cost per case
was USD18.20 (SD=73.49, median=2.36). The fitted drug cost model
had an adjusted R2 of 0.449. The positive significant predictor
variables of drug costs were prolonged length of stay, age over
30 years old, male, Universal Health Coverage Scheme, time of
accident during 18:00-24:00 o’clock, and motorcycle comparing
to bus. To forecast the drug budget for 2006, there were two approaches
identified, the mean drug cost and the predicted average drug
cost. The predicted average drug cost was calculated based on
the forecasted values of statistically significant (p<0.05)
predictor variables included in the fitted model; predicted total
drug cost was USD44,334. Alternatively, based on the mean cost,
predicted total drug cost in 2006 was USD63,408. This was 43%
higher than the figure based on the predicted cost approach.
Conclusions: The planned budget of drug cost based on the mean
cost and predicted average cost were meaningfully different. The
application of a predicted average cost model could result in
a more accurate budget planning than that of a mean statistic
approach.
